Super El Niño in the Philippines: Will Your Electricity Bill Go Up?

PAGASA has said a very strong El Niño is likely from around October 2026 to January 2027, and that it could continue into the first half of 2027. The media calls it a "Super El Niño". For most of the country, that means less rain, longer dry spells and hotter days, particularly after the habagat season ends.

Forecasts change, so keep an eye on PAGASA's monthly updates.

This is the part that hits your bill directly. When it's hotter, aircons run longer and work harder, refs and freezers cycle more often, and electric fans stay on all day. In most Filipino homes, aircon is already the biggest part of the bill, so a few extra hours a day adds up fast.

These are rough examples, just to show the scale. Two aircons running a couple of extra hours can easily add ₱1,000 or more a month, before any rate increase.

Your electricity rate isn't fixed. A big part of it is the generation charge, the cost of producing the power, and that moves with supply and demand. A strong El Niño can squeeze supply from both sides:

• Less water for hydropower. Long dry spells lower dam and river levels, so hydro plants produce less. This matters a lot in Mindanao, which relies more on hydropower, and it also affects Luzon.
• Higher demand. Everyone's aircon is on at the same time, especially in the afternoon.
• Tighter reserves. When demand gets close to supply, the grid goes on yellow or red alert, and prices on the wholesale spot market climb.

We saw a preview of this in May 2026, when the Luzon grid went on red and yellow alerts. Spot-market prices rose, and Meralco's June rate went up by about ₱0.15 per kWh to around ₱14.48 per kWh. That's a small increase per kWh, but it adds up on top of higher usage.

There's a higher chance, especially during the hottest months, when demand peaks and reserves run thin. Red alerts can lead to rotating brownouts. On islands and in areas served by smaller electric cooperatives, supply can be even more fragile.

Some of this is free. Set the aircon to 24 to 25°C instead of 18, close curtains on the sunny side of the house, clean the aircon filters, and turn off what you're not using. Switching an old non-inverter aircon to an inverter model makes a big difference too.

The bigger move is producing your own power. Solar still pays off during El Niño, but it isn't as simple as "more sun, more power". Clearer skies mean more sunlight, but panels also lose efficiency when they get very hot, by around 10 to 25 percent on the hottest days. Solar also peaks around midday, while a lot of aircon use runs into the late afternoon and night. Still, every kWh your panels make during the day is one you don't buy from the grid, at whatever the rate is that month. More on this in can solar panels still work during a Super El Niño?

If brownouts are your main worry, a hybrid system with a battery keeps your essentials running when the grid goes down. Grid-tie alone won't. See how big a battery you need.

Want to see what solar would do for your bill? Tell us your average monthly bill and we'll give you an estimate. Request a free solar assessment. We also offer interest-free in-house installments.